t,wehaveconstructedgravitymodeltomeasuretheimpactofvegetablepesticideresiduelimitsstandardontrade,andplantomakeanempiricalanalysisbyusingthepaneldatafromChina’svegetableexporttoJapan,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionduringthesixteenyearsfromto.TheformofModelisspecifiedastype():Where,MijtisthevegetabletradevolumeofChina’sexporttocountryjduringthetperiod.Aboutthemeaningoftheexplanatoryvariables,theitsasametric,istomeasureTBT’seffectonChina’svegetableexport.(B)applicationsofthegravitymodelinthestandardmeasureofTradeFlowMonenius()usedthismodeltoanalyzethetradeeffectofspontaneousstandard,thepaneldatacoveringthedataofindustrialproductsfromtoinEuropeancountries.Hefoundthatthesharingstandardcaneliminatethepotentialcostdifferencesandhasagreateffectonthevolumeoftrade.Ifthenumberofbilateralmutualcriteriaincreases,thecorrespondingtradevolumeincreasesabout..Healsofoundthatacountry’sunilateralstandardreducestheimportsofnonmanufacturingsectorssuchasagriculturalproducts,butpromotesthetradeofthemanufacturingsector.ThismethodwasalsoappliedinGebrehiwet’sstudy()(ontheexporteffectoftheaflatoxinstandardsofAmerica,Europeandotherdevelopedcountriesonfruits,vegetablesandnutsfoodforAsiaPacificandAfricancountries)andChen’sresearch()(ontheeffectofoxytetracyclinemaximumresiduelimitsinfishfeedandchlorpyrifosmaximumresiduelimitininsecticideonChina’sfishproductsandfreshfruitexports).Theyallcometothesameconclusion:themaximumresidualstandardcanrestricttheexportofdevelopingcountries,andthemorerestrictthestandard,themoreobvioustherestrictioneffect.Inrecentyears,Chinesescholarshavebeguntousethegravitymodeltoexplaintheeffectsoftechnicalregulationsandstandards,technicalbarrierstotrade.Zhaoxing()deducedthegravitationalequationoftradeflowfromthenewclassicandthenewtradetheory,andmadeamacroanalysisontheChineseagriculturalproductexportflow.Dongsheng(),byuseofthegravitymodel,analyzedtheimpactofJapaneselimitsofchlorpyrifosresiduesonChina’svegetablesexporttoJapan.PanFengjie,etal.()analyzedandverifiedtheinfluencingfactorsofthegravitymodelforChina’svegetableexport.Inaddition,XuHaiqing(),DongYinguo(),ZhongZijian(),ZhaiYinli()andotherresearchersusedthegravitymodeltomakeaquantitativeanalysisontheinfluenceoftechnicalbarrierstotradeonChina’sexportofagriculturalproducts.Accordingtothecontentoftheresearch,andconsideringtheavailabilityofthedata,thispaperappliesthegravitymodelmethodtotheresearch.Second,theconstructionofthemodelandthedatasources(A)theconstructionofthemodelTomeasuretheeffectsofTBTonChina’svegetableexport,wehaveconstructedgravitymodeltomeasuretheimpactofvegetablepesticideresiduelimitsstandardontrade,andplantomakeanempiricalanalysisbyusingthepaneldatafromChina’svegetableexporttoJapan,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionduringthesixteenyearsfromto.TheformofModelisspecifiedastype():Where,MijtisthevegetabletradevolumeofChina’sexporttocountryjduringthetperiod.Aboutthemeaningoftheexplanatoryvariables,the品上已经有项。年起，农药残留数量从多项疾速地上升到多项。据保守估计，蔬菜标准增加了两倍，达到了个项目。为叶型，茎，水果蔬菜，西红柿，花椰菜和其他蔬菜，美国制定了项农药残留限制标准项目。年，蔬菜农药残留限量标准达到了项。欧盟蔬菜农药残留标准是根据蔬菜种类设置。年前，六大蔬菜如根，水果和蔬菜，绿叶蔬菜被给了项标准。年初，数量增长到个标准（任，许，张，）。之前，整合了农业部，卫生部，国家统计局技术监督检验蔬菜农药残留限量标准。年，中国实施了无公害农产品标准，其中无公害蔬菜含有中蔬菜农药残留标准。年月，新国际标准“食物最大农药残留限量”开始实施，个标准是根据中农药配方制定（周，钟，）。这个模型中关键变量统计描述如表：M出口数量GNPc中国人均国民生产总值GNPj进口国人均生产总值Di距离SC中国标准Sj进口国标准平均值......中位数.....最大值......最小值......标准偏差......三、实证结果和讨论（一）实证结果研究数据来源于横截面数据和由时间序列组成面板数据。时间跨度是年，每年有三个数据是来自中国蔬菜出口到日本、美国、欧盟个数据中。通过数据特征，使用面板广义二乘法和用软件E-views对模型做了一个定量分析。回归结果如表：变量预期符号系数T值系数T值模型模型Ln(GNPC)中国+.***..***.Ln(GNPi)进口国+.***..***.Ln(D)--.***-.-.***-.ln(SC)中国标准+.***..***.Ln(Sj)进口国标准--.***-.-.***-.R..F..P..R..D.W...N注:***,**,*表明分别在,,.显著水平（二）相关讨论从回归结果里可以看出，每个解释变量符号和预期符号基本相同，而且大多数达到了显著高水平。该方程整体和每个系数被测定为F。该方程决定系数R达到了.，即，模型拟合性很好。回归结果具体分析如下:（）进口国蔬菜农药残留限量标准对中国蔬菜出口有明显抑制作用。模型，在显著水平，进口国标准回归系数是-.，意味着进口国标准每提高，中国蔬菜出口将减少.；如果你考虑到肯定列表制度政策影响，该回归系数将是-.。因此，进口国整体农药残留限制标准数量增加将对中国出口蔬菜有一个较大抑制作用，这是符合实际情况。（）中国蔬菜残留限量标准在促进蔬菜出口有一定作用。在模型和中，在达到显著水平时，中国蔬菜农药残留限量标准分别是.和.，均为正，说明提高中国蔬菜农药残留限量标准和加强对蔬菜农药残留措施可以提高中国蔬菜质量，并通过中国对进口国消费者产品质量安全可靠信息对中国蔬菜产品进入日本、美国和欧洲是有益。（）进口和出口国人均生产总值对中国蔬菜出口有明显促进作用。模型，在显著水平，进口国人均国民生产总值回归系数是.，这意味着进口国人均国民生产总值每升高，即，进口国国内需求每增加，中国蔬菜出口量将增加.；中国人均国民生产总值回归系数是.，意味着中国人均国民生产总值每增加，中国蔬菜出口量将增加.。考虑到列表政策，进口和出口国人均国民生产总值仍对中国蔬菜出口有显著推广作用。总之，在经济繁荣时期，两国之间贸易将更好，但是经济衰退不利于贸易发展。（）双方地理距离对中国蔬菜出口有负面影响。模型和模型中，地理距离系数是-.和-.，表明了，缩短双方地理距离可以减少交易成本，推动双边贸易。（）总体上，肯定列表政策对中国蔬菜出口有积极作用，其回归系数为..其原因可能在于：A肯定列表政策对中国蔬菜出口日本有显著短期抑制作用，中国出口企业增加了美国和欧洲市场发展，降低了对日本市场依赖性。从实际出发，与年相比，在,,年中国蔬菜出口日本，有一个负增长率，然而出口到欧洲美国有所增长。B在长期内，肯定列表制度可能迫使中国蔬菜产品和出口企业加强管理，降低农药残留，从而提高国际农产品出口竞争力和促进出口。从模型结果来看，肯定列表政策回归系数变量没有达到，其长期效应值得我们进一步研究。四、结论和政策建议数据结果分析表明：日本、美国和欧洲蔬菜农药残留限量标准对中国蔬菜出口有一个显著负面影响。标准数量越多，其负面影响越大；而促进中国蔬菜农药残留限量标准对中国蔬菜出口有一定作用；日本肯定列表政策对中国蔬菜出口日本有一个短期抑制作用，但其驱动机制可以促进中国出口企业努力增加研发欧洲和美国市场，并通过加强管理，减少农药残留，从而提高出口农产品国际竞争力，促进出口。根据以上结论，本文认为应对技术性贸易壁垒，中国蔬菜出口必须专注于农药残留控制。（）关注进口和出口国家技术标准变化，完善跟踪和评估机制，及时发布相关信息；及时和积极地遵守科学标准，积极主动地防御不合理要求。（）加强技术法规建设和蔬菜产品标准体系，提高国际标准采用率和促进中国标准国际化。（）优化农业生产环境，加强农业输入管理，建立从农田到餐桌农产品质量安全体系，以提高产品质量安全水平。（）施出口市场多元化战略，巩固原有日本、美国、欧洲和其他传统市场，同时努力发展东盟、中东、中亚、俄罗斯和其他周边市场，并与这些市场积极建立一个稳定贸易渠道，这不仅有距离优势，而且适度缓解出口市场过于集中风险。itsasametric,istomeasureTBT’seffectonChina’svegetableexport.(B)applicationsofthegravitymodelinthestandardmeasureofTradeFlowMonenius()usedthismodeltoanalyzethetradeeffectofspontaneousstandard,thepaneldatacoveringthedataofindustrialproductsfromtoinEuropeancountries.Hefoundthatthesharingstandardcaneliminatethepotentialcostdifferencesandhasagreateffectonthevolumeoftrade.Ifthenumberofbilateralmutualcri中文字MeasurementoftheImpactsoftheTechnicalBarrierstoTradeonVegetableExportofChina:AnEmpiricalStudyBasedontheGravityModelLarryD.QiuJulyAbstractWiththeresiduelimitsofpesticidesinvegetablesastheindication,thepresentpaperemploysthegravitymodeltomeasuretheimpactsofthetechnicalbarrierstotradeonvegetableexportofChina.TheanalysisshowsthattheresiduelimitsofthepesticidesinvegetablessetbyJapan,USandEUhaveapparentnegativeimpactsonthevegetableexportofChina.ThevegetableexportofChinadecreasesby.withtheriseinthestrictnessofresiduelimitsby.Ontheotherhand,toraisethestrictnessinresiduelimitsofpesticidesinvegetablesinChinahassomepositiveimpactsonthevegetableexportofChina.ThereversedtransmissionoftheaffirmativelistpolicyofJapan,despiteitsapparentshort-termrepressiveimpactsonthevegetableexportofChina,haspositiveimpactsonthevegetableexportofChinaasawholetotheUS,EuropeanandJapanesemarkets.First，introducesituationandthegravitymodel(A)introductionWiththedevelopmentofeconomicglobalization,andontheconditionofWTO’sstrictlylimitingtariffsandquotas,anti-dumping,countervailingandothertraditionalnon-tariffmeasures,toprotecthumanandanimalandplanthealthandenvironmentalresources,technicalbarrierstotrade(TBT),becauseofitscharacteristicssuchasstrongpertinence,goodconcealment,flexibility,areincreasinglybecomethemainpolicytoolsandmeansintheworldespeciallyinthedevelopedcountriestomakethetradeprotection,whichhasafar-reachinginfluenceoninternationaltrade.Inrecentyears,affectedbyvariousfactors,China’sexportofagriculturalproductshasbecomeoneofthemostseriousindustriesbeinglimitedbytechnicalbarrierstotrade.TBThascausedgreatnegativeeffecttoChina’sagriculturalproductexportanddomesticagriculturalproduction.Chinaistheworld’smainvegetableproductionandexportcountry.Inrecentyearsitsrapidexportgrowthhasbecomethesecondmajorcategoriesofproducts.ThemainmarketsofChina’svegetableexportareJapan,theUnitedStates,Europeandotherdevelopedcountriesandregions,whichsethigherlevelsoftechnicalbarrierstotrade,sovegetableproductsalsoencountermoreserioustechnicalbarrierstotrade.Accordingtotheexamplesanddata,inrecentyears,China’svegetableproductsarehinderedbytechnicalbarrierstotrade,pesticideresidues,microbialpollutionandpoorqualitybeingthemainreasons.Andexcessivepesticideresidueaccountfor,whichisourmainconcern.Thisarticle,takingAmerican,Europeanvegetablepesticideresiduelimitsasametric,istomeasureTBT’seffectonChina’svegetableexport.(B)applicationsofthegravitymodelinthestandardmeasureofTradeFlowMonenius()usedthismodeltoanalyzethetradeeffectofspontaneousstandard,thepaneldatacoveringthedataofindustrialproductsfromtoinEuropeancountries.Hefoundthatthesharingstandardcaneliminatethepotentialcostdifferencesandhasagreateffectonthevolumeoftrade.Ifthenumberofbilateralmutualcriteriaincreases,thecorrespondingtradevolumeincreasesabout..Healsofoundthatacountry’sunilateralstandardreducestheimportsofnonmanufacturingsectorssuchasagriculturalproducts,butpromotesthetradeofthemanufacturingsector.ThismethodwasalsoappliedinGebrehiwet’sstudy()(ontheexporteffectoftheaflatoxinstandardsofAmerica,Europeandotherdevelopedcountriesonfruits,vegetablesandnutsfoodforAsiaPacificandAfricancountries)andChen’sresearch()(ontheeffectofoxytetracyclinemaximumresiduelimitsinfishfeedandchlorpyrifosmaximumresiduelimitininsecticideonChina’sfishproductsandfreshfruitexports).Theyallcometothesameconclusion:themaximumresidualstandardcanrestricttheexportofdevelopingcountries,andthemorerestrictthestandard,themoreobvioustherestrictioneffect.Inrecentyears,Chinesescholarshavebeguntousethegravitymodeltoexplaintheeffectsoftechnicalregulationsandstandards,technicalbarrierstotrade.Zhaoxing()deducedthegravitationalequationoftradeflowfromthenewclassicandthenewtradetheory,andmadeamacroanalysisontheChineseagriculturalproductexportflow.Dongsheng(),byuseofthegravitymodel,analyzedtheimpactofJapaneselimitsofchlorpyrifosresiduesonChina’svegetablesexporttoJapan.PanFengjie,etal.()analyzedandverifiedtheinfluencingfactorsofthegravitymodelforChina’svegetableexport.Inaddition,XuH        中文4335字MeasurementoftheImpactsoftheTechnicalBarrierstoTradeonVegetableExportofChina:AnEmpiricalStudyBasedontheGravityModelLarryD.QiuJuly22013AbstractWiththeresiduelimitsofpesticidesinvegetablesastheindication,thepresentpaperemploysthegravitymodeltomeasuretheimpactsofthetechnicalbarrierstotradeonvegetableexportofChina.Theanalysisshowsthattheresiduelim

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