hyearbyobservingsimplerelationshipsbetweenthegrowthofgrossdomesticproduct(rGDP),andtheratioofforeigndirectinvestmentandgrossdomesticproduct(FDI),thelatterrepresentingalsoakindof‘revealed’liberalizationofcapitalaccount.TheaverageFDIinthe–periodwas.percentrangingbetween.percentinEstoniaand.percentinSlovenia,whilethegrowthofGDPby.percentayearwasrangingbetween.percentinPolandand.percentinCzechRepublicsultsofthesestudiesindicatethatthesizeofinwardFDIstocksorflows,relativetoGDP,isnotrelatedinanyconsistentwaytoratesofgrowth’(Lipsey,p.).AsizableliteratureonFDIintransitioneconomiescanbelooselydividedintothestudiesdealingwiththedeterminantsofFDIandthosedealingwiththeimpactsofFDIoneconomicperformance.Mostofthestudiesusedmicroeconomicdataanddealtwithmicroeconomicissues(BarrelandHolland,BevanandEstri,Konings,Damijanetal.)andonlyafewwithimpactsofFDIonmacroeconomicperformanceoftransitioncountries(CamposandKinoshita,Krkoska,Lipschitzetal.)whichareconsideredhere.Indeed,weonlywanttoanswertwoquestions.First:Didforeigntakeovers,apredominantformofFDIindevelopedtransitioncountries,enhancetheireconomicgrowthduringthepost-transitionperiod?Secondly:Ifnot,whatwerethereasons?DataWeshallconcentrateonaverynarrowsamplebothregardingthesetofthecountriesandtheperiodincluded.ThesampleconsistsofeightEUcandidates–CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,Slovakia,andSlovenia–inthepost-transitionperiod,whichisalsotheperiodoftheirgradualaccessiontoEUandhighrelianceonFDI.Thenarrowingofthesampletoonlyeightcountriesandtothepost-transitionperiodonaccountofthenumberofobservationsisdeliberate；itisbasedonexperienceswithtransitionprocessesindifferentcountrygroups.First,wetrytoobserveasetofcountrieswithcommoninstitutionalandculturalcharacteristics,aparticulargrowthexperience,andataparticularlevelofdevelopment.OnlytheseeightoutoftransitioncountrieswereacknowledgedasfunctioningmarketeconomiesbyEUstandardsandbecamecandidatesforentryin.Secondly,transitionbroughtafundamentalbreakinthewayinwhicheconomiesfunctionandthetransitionperiodinthenarrowsenseshouldnotbeincludedinthesample.WithbothrestrictionswegetamuchnarrowersetoftransitioncountriesthantheoneusedbyCamposandKinoshita().Letusbeginbyexploringtimeseriesdataforeachcountry,andcross-sectiondataforeachyearbyobservingsimplerelationshipsbetweenthegrowthofgrossdomesticproduct(rGDP),andtheratioofforeigndirectinvestmentandgrossdomesticproduct(FDI),thelatterrepresentingalsoakindof‘revealed’liberalizationofcapitalaccount.TheaverageFDIinthe–periodwas.percentrangingbetween.percentinEstoniaand.percentinSlovenia,whilethegrowthofGDPby.percentayearwasrangingbetween.percentinPolandand.percentinCzechRepublic集起来意味着对每个截面单位或每个国家有着相同结构，但如果不在这种情况下，我们会得出不一致估计。其次，格兰杰因果检验不能提供这种关系迹象。西姆斯因果关次检验适用于估计“个别效应”在一个国家具体截取或截留数据形式下估算，通过下列两个方程：rGDP=a+aFDI–+aFDI+aFDI++aGDP+ajDUMj()FDI=b+brGDP–+brGDP+brGDP++bGDP+bjDUMj()其中rGDP代表是国内生产总值增长率，FDI是外商直接投资占GDP比重，GDP是每国内生产总值在欧盟平均比例，DUMj是假国家。结果在表中。具体国家通过GDP观察其发展水平；在第一个等式中爱沙尼亚和波兰是微不足道，而捷克共和国和波兰在第二个等式中是微不足道。总之，结果证实了格兰杰因果检验；T标准系数在水平下FDI比率是明显并且目前FDI系数很高，相反滞后系数以rGDP为主。表因果检验RGDP=f(FDI,Xj)aitaFDI=g(rGDP,Xj)bitbConstant..Constant..FDI--.-.RGDP--.-.FDI-.-.rGDP-.-.FDI+-.-.rGDP+-.-.GDP-.-.GDP-.-.CzechRepublic..Estonia..Poland-.-.Poland-.-.RandDW..RandDW..为了估计因果检验和简单回归模型中相互依赖系数以及FDI相互独立变量，由个子样本组成（每个国家被忽略）。结果见表表格兰杰因果检验和简单回归NullhypothesisrGDPdoesnotcauseFDIRGDP=a+bFDIRGDP=a+bFDI–FDIdoesnotcauserGDPLagLagConst.SlopeConstSlopeeightcountries......-.-...-..withoutCzechR.......-.-...-.-.withoutEstonia......-.-...-.-.withoutHungary......-.-...-.-.withoutLatvia......-.-...-.-.withoutLithuania......-.-...-.-.withoutPoland......-.-...-.-.withoutSlovakia......-.-...-.-.withoutSlovenia......-.-...-.-.尽管FDI有简单负面性，被拒绝因果检验结果会产生争议是因为FDI内生性以及变量参数被忽略。这些问题都是在一个标准新古典增长模型内被大多数研究人员所解决。在索洛增长模型中，FDI被看作是东道国资本一个增量，FDI也被视作国内资本替代或是重要组成部分。一个标准生产函数来自于索洛模型，被曼昆，罗默和Weil()和Easterly()所使用，其形式为：rGDP=f(GDP,rINV,rEMP,FDI,rEU,dummyvariables)()其中rINV代表是总固定投资增长，rEMP代表是就业，rEU是在欧盟国家中GDP增长，结果在表中。表扩编生产函数，—()()()()()()()()()constant.(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.)GDP-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.(-.)(-.)(-.)(-.)(-.)(-.)(-.)(-.)rINV.(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.)rEMP.(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.).(.)FDI--.(-.)-.(-.)-.(-.)-.(-.)-.(-.)-.(-.)-.(-.)FDI-.(-.)-.(-.)-.(-.)rEU-.(-.).(.)-.(-.)DummyforEstonia.(.).(.).(.).(.)DummyforLithuania-.(-.)-.(-.)-.(-.)rGDP--.(-.)-.(-.)R........DW......Note:t-statisticsareinparenthesis在生产函数规格中FDI-负相关系数仍然明显，而其他系数都符合理论预期。负初始国内生产总值与理论还是相衔接。由虚拟变数表达国家特定影响表示是微不足道，除了爱沙尼亚和立陶宛。结果如何才能找到一个合理对于这个结果解释？这是重大但根据FDI促进经济增长“理所当然”是有争议，因为它代替了国内储蓄、投资和它带来外资对当地企业生产率外溢（未完）。sultsofthesestudiesindicatethatthesizeofinwardFDIstocksorflows,relativetoGDP,isnotrelatedinanyconsistentwaytoratesofgrowth’(Lipsey,p.).AsizableliteratureonFDIintransitioneconomiescanbelooselydividedintothestudiesdealingwiththedeterminantsofFDIandthosedealingwiththeimpactsofFDIoneconomicperformance.Mostofthestudiesusedmicroeconomicdataanddealtwithmicroeconomicissues(BarrelandHolland,BevanandEstri,K本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目:Doseforeigndirectinvestmentalwaysenhanceeconomicgrowth?出处：KYKLOS,Vol.--Fasc.,-作者:JozeMencinger原文：DoesForeignDirectInvestmentAlwaysEnhanceEconomicGrowth?JozeMencingerIntroductionForinternationalfinancialinstitutions,politicians,andthevastmajorityofeconomistsforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)appearstobeasortofpanaceaforeveryeconomicproblemintheemergingmarketeconomies；itspositiveimpactoneconomicgrowthhasacquiredthestatusofconventionalfact.Economictheorynamelysuggeststhatunfetteredinternationalcapitalflowsfosterefficientallocationofresources,whichbyitselfshouldpromotegrowth.TheeconomicbenefitsofFDIareconsideredtobetwofold.First,FDIcanhelpcountriesifdomesticsavingsareinsufficienttofinanceeconomicexpansion；secondly,aforeigncorporatepresenceisassociatedwithpositiveexternalities.ThealmostdesperateeffortsofmanycountriestoattractasmuchFDIaspossibleindirectlysupportthetheory.However,substantialgainsofinwardFDIforthehostcountrieshavebeenmuchmoreassertedthanconfirmedbyempiricalevidence.TheresultsofarapidlygrowingnumberofempiricalstudiesontherelationbetweenFDIandeconomicgrowthdiffer,althoughmoststudiesstartwithessentiallythesamebenchmarkcross-countrygrowthmodel.Thedifferencesinthesetsofthecountriesincluded,sampleperiods,data,andestimationtechniqueshampercomparisonsacrossthestudies(Edisonetal.).Inmanystudiesdealingwithsubsetsofthecountries,FDIorFDIincombinationwithsomeotherfactororfactors,ispositivelyrelatedtogrowth,whileseveralstudies(Rodrik,GrilliandMilesi-Ferretti,Kraay)havefoundnosignificantrelationshipbetweenFDIandgrowth.Moststudieshavestressedthedifferencesamongthesetsofcountriesincludedregardingtheirtradepolicies,institutionalcharacteristics,orlevelofdevelopment.MorethantwodecadesagoBhagwati()suggestedthattheimpactofFDIongrowthdependsonthetradepolicyofahostcountry；inexport-promotingcountriesFDIwouldincreasegrowth,whileitwouldhavenoimpactinacountrywithanimportsubstitutiontradepolicy.HishypothesiswastestedbyBalasubramanayam,SalisuandSapsford()；theoutcomewasmixed.Blomstrm,LipseyandZejan()foundthatFDIonlypromotesgrowthinhigher-incomedevelopingcountries.Empiricalstudiesonthesubjecthavethereforenotrefutedthestatementthat‘ingeneral,theresultsofthesestudiesindicatethatthesizeofinwardFDIstocksorflows,relativetoGDP,isnotrelatedinanyconsistentwaytoratesofgrowth’(Lipsey,p.).AsizableliteratureonFDIintransitioneconomiescanbelooselydividedintothestudiesdealingwiththedeterminantsofFDIandthosedealingwiththeimpactsofFDIoneconomicperformance.Mostofthestudiesusedmicroeconomicdataanddealtwithmicroeconomicissues(BarrelandHolland,BevanandEstri,Konings,Damijanetal.)andonlyafewwithimpactsofFDIonmacroeconomicperformanceoftransitioncountries(CamposandKinoshita,Krkoska,Lipschitzetal.)whichareconsideredhere.Indeed,weonlywanttoanswertwoquestions.First:Didforeigntakeovers,apredominantformofFDIindevelopedtransitioncountries,enhancetheireconomicgrowthduringthepost-transitionperiod?Secondly:Ifnot,whatwerethereasons?DataWeshallconcentrateonaverynarrowsamplebothregardingthesetofthecountriesandtheperiodincluded.ThesampleconsistsofeightEUcandidates–CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,Slovakia,andSlovenia–inthepost-transitionperiod,whichisalsotheperiodoftheirgradualaccessiontoEUandhighrelianceonFDI.Thenarrowingofthesampletoonlyeightcountriesandtothepost-transitionperiodonaccountofthenumberofobservationsisdeliberate；itisbasedonexperienceswithtransitionprocessesindifferentcountrygroups.First,wetrytoobserveasetofcountrieswithcommoninstitutionalandculturalcharacteristics,aparticulargrowthexperience,andataparticularlevelofdevelopment.OnlytheseeightoutoftransitioncountrieswereacknowledgedasfunctioningmarketeconomiesbyEUstandardsandbecamecandidatesforentryin.Secondly,transitionbroughtafundamentalbreakinthewa        1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目:Doseforeigndirectinvestmentalwaysenhanceeconomicgrowth?出处：KYKLOS,Vol.56-2003-Fasc.4,491-508作者:JozeMencinger原文：DoesForeignDirectInvestmentAlwaysEnhanceEconomicGrowth?JozeMencingerIntroductionForinternationalfinancialinstitutions,politicians,andthevastmajorityofeconomistsforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)appearstobeasortofpanaceaforeveryecono

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